⚾ Braves vs. Diamondbacks Win Probability: Who Will Win Today’s MLB Game? (April 2)

With just three MLB games tonight, the Atlanta Braves (4-2) and Arizona Diamondbacks (3-3) take center stage as Braves starter Reynaldo Lopez (0-0, 1.50 ERA) faces Diamondbacks starter Ryne Nelson (0-0, 7.71 ERA) with first pitch set for 9:40 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Chase Field in Phoenix.

The latest Braves vs. Diamondbacks win probability has Atlanta as the slim favorite to win this NL clash after the first week of the season, but the prediction market apps are essentially split down the middle with over $550,000 in trading volume so far.

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🏆 Who will win Braves vs. Diamondbacks? Live MLB win probability

The Diamondbacks were favored to win this game when the market first opened earlier this week, but the Braves moved ahead in the latest win probability charts on Wednesday afternoon and continue to trend in Atlanta's favor ahead of first pitch.

The Braves certainly have the pitching advantage on paper with Lopez coming off a strong start in his return from a season-ending shoulder injury last year. He gave up just three hits and one run across six frames in Saturday's 6-2 win over the Royals, aided by a lineup that ranks eighth in OPS (.721) and wOBA (.326) after the first week.

The Diamondbacks sit 12th in both metrics with better power numbers than the Braves' lineup, though they've struggled to keep the ball in the yard on the other side with the second-highest barrel rate allowed (12.8%) by any pitching staff. I suspect we could see more of the same from Nelson, who allowed two home runs in 4 2/3 innings in his season debut on Friday.

My prediction: Braves win. I agree with the late market movement here toward Atlanta, which should have a pitching advantage through the first five frames and a hotter lineup, too. Our MLB expert Andrew Brennan focuses on Lopez with his MLB player props today ahead of tonight's two remaining matchups.

💣 Who will hit a home run in Braves vs. Diamondbacks?

With more than $70,000 in trading volume so far, nobody is a more popular pick to hit a home run today than Ronald Acuna Jr., the only player trading at higher than 20% at Kalshi in the hours leading up to first pitch. He's yet to hit a home run this season but hit 21 in just 95 games last year.

Ketel Marte is the most likely player to hit a home run for the Diamondbacks according to the market - he's one of five players who have gone deep for Arizona this year, joining Corbin Carroll (2), Jose Fernandez (2), Geraldo Perdomo (1), and Ildemaro Vargas (1). Four Braves have hit a home run so far: Drake Baldwin (3), Ozzie Albies (1), Michael Harris (1), and Dominic Smith (1).

My prediction: Michael Harris II to hit a home run. The former Rookie of the Year is only batting .217 so far, but he's hitting the ball harder than ever this year with a 94th percentile bat speed. He has the best history against Nelson, too, hitting .333 with a home run in six at-bats. Brennan is targeting a different Braves hitter with his best home run predictions today, along with two other picks to go deep tonight.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Braves vs. Diamondbacks?

There's almost exactly a 50% chance of a run in the first inning of Braves vs. Diamondbacks today with more than $20,000 in trading volume at Kalshi - a major shift from the early market which sat around 45% for most of Wednesday.

The Braves' lineup is one of the best in the MLB in the first inning, scoring 0.83 runs per game (fourth) with a combined four such runs over the last three games, while the Diamondbacks are right behind with 0.67 first-inning runs per game to rank ninth. Nelson strikes me as a particular vulnerability in the first frame of this one.

My prediction: Yes run in the first inning. These are two lineups that strike early, and with Lopez still coming back from injury and Nelson a liability, I like the chances of a first-inning run today.

📊 Braves vs. Diamondbacks win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Braves vs. Diamondbacks

• Date: Thursday, April 2
• First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Chase Field (Phoenix)
• TV: ESPN
• Streaming: MLB.tv
• Braves starter: Reynaldo Lopez (0-0, 1.50 ERA)
• Diamondbacks starter: Ryne Nelson (0-0, 7.71 ERA)