🏎️ Japanese Grand Prix Odds, Favorites 2026: Can Antonelli's Dominance Continue?
Kimi Antonelli is the pole-sitter and betting favorite for Sunday's Japanese Grand Prix, which takes place at 1 a.m. ET (ESPN).
My Japanese Grand Prix odds and favorites provide updated odds for the field. It also offers a prediction on the best bet to win, along with alternative suggestions. It was another Mercedes front-row lockout during qualifying, with George Russell sitting alongside Antonelli.
📊 Japanese Grand Prix odds 2026
Latest Japanese Grand Prix odds to win Sunday's race via BetMGM. Updated on Saturday, March 28 after qualifying
| Driver | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kimi Antonelli | -175 | 63.69% | $5.71 |
| George Russell | +175 | 36.36% | $17.50 |
| Charles Leclerc | +1200 | 7.69% | $120 |
| Lewis Hamilton | +2000 | 4.76% | $200 |
| Oscar Piastri | +2000 | 4.76% | $200 |
| Lando Norris | +6600 | 1.49% | $660 |
| Max Verstappen | +10000 | 0.99% | $1,000 |
| Isack Hadjar | +25000 | 0.40% | $2,500 |
| Pierre Gasly | +25000 | 0.40% | $2,500 |
| Arvid Lindblad | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Esteban Ocon | +150000 | 0.07% | $15,000 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | +150000 | 0.07% | $15,000 |
| Oliver Bearman | +200000 | 0.05% | $20,000 |
| Liam Lawson | +250000 | 0.04% | $25,000 |
| Carlos Sainz Jr. | +250000 | 0.04% | $25,000 |
| Alexander Albon | +250000 | 0.04% | $25,000 |
| Franco Colapinto | +250000 | 0.04% | $25,000 |
| Fernando Alonso | +400000 | 0.02% | $40,000 |
| Lance Stroll | +400000 | 0.02% | $40,000 |
| Sergio Perez | +400000 | 0.02% | $40,000 |
| Valtteri Bottas | +400000 | 0.02% | $40,000 |
🔢 Japanese Grand Prix starting grid
Antonelli took his second straight pole and shifted up the oddsboard as a result.
Russell will line up right beside him on the grid, and there are also two McLarens in the top five, along with the always strong Ferraris lurking.
| Position | Driver |
|---|---|
| 1 | Kimi Antonelli |
| 2 | George Russell |
| 3 | Oscar Piastri |
| 4 | Charles Leclerc |
| 5 | Lando Norris |
| 6 | Lewis Hamilton |
| 7 | Pierre Gasly |
| 8 | Isack Hadjar |
| 9 | Gabriel Bortoleto |
| 10 | Arvid Lindblad |
| 11 | Max Verstappen |
| 12 | Esteban Ocon |
| 13 | Nick Hulkenberg |
| 14 | Liam Lawson |
| 15 | Franco Colapinto |
| 16 | Carlos Sainz |
| 17 | Alexander Albon |
| 18 | Oliver Bearman |
| 19 | Sergio Perez |
| 20 | Valtteri Bottas |
| 21 | Fernando Alonso |
| 22 | Lance Stroll |
🏁 Early pick to win Japanese Grand Prix
Editor's note: Picks made on Monday, March 23
George Russell (-154) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Russell finished second in China after winning the first race of the season in Australia.
His second-place finish at the Chinese Grand Prix will be seen as a massive disappointment and opportunity missed for the Brit, who is the clear -192 favorite to win this year's championship.
Russell's W17 suffered a gearbox glitch in qualifying, which teammate Antonelli took full advantage of, winning his first GP.
Who poses the biggest threat to Russell at Chinese Grand Prix?
While Antonelli poses the biggest threat in Japan, I can't see the W17 malfunctioning in successive races for the Russell.
If his car performs to its ability and remains unscathed, Russell should win his second race of the season. He finished last year's Chinese Grand Prix in third place and has a far superior car to drive this time around.
Until competing teams can close the discernible gap in their cars' performance, Mercedes will dominate. Despite the short odds at the best sports betting sites, which I dislike about as much as Russell did his gearbox malfunction, it's still the best bet.
🏁 Want more Japanese Grand Prix picks?
If you want more picks for Sunday's race, check out my Japanese Grand Prix predictions.
💰 Early picks & best bets at Suzuka Circuit
Here's a look at the best alternatives on the board looking ahead to Sunday's race:
Kimi Antonelli (+275)
By winning the Chinese Grand Prix, the 19-year-old became the second-youngest F1 driver to win a race. Max Verstappen is the youngest.
That will inject untold confidence into the Italian's veins, and he will also be boosted by driving the best car on the circuit. While his nerves showed on a loose corner in the final stages of the Chinese Grand Prix, he held onto victory.
Antonelli's +275 odds represent the best value on the board, and he will punish any mistake Russell commits.
Charles Leclerc (+1000)
If anyone can upset the Mercedes drivers, who finished one-two in the first two races, it's Ferrari. As the more consistent driver since Lewis Hamilton's arrival at Ferrari, I'm more partial to Charles Leclerc.
He finished on the podium Down Under and tussled with Hamilton throughout the Chinese Grand Prix, eventually having to settle for fourth after an epic wheel-to-wheel showdown.
In addition, Ferrari has the best car out of the starting gate by a country mile.
Lewis Hamilton (+800)
Hamilton is finally enjoying himself in Ferrari red. He loves the new car, how it starts, and the nature of the new F1, which prioritizes wheel-to-wheel driving replete with takeovers.
That style is in Hamilton's wheelhouse, and it showed at the Chinese Grand Prix, where he finished on the podium for the first time since joining Ferrari at the start of last season.
With the second-best car on the grid, Hamilton can let his driving do the talking. And that's an ominous thought for the rest of the field.
🏆 Past Japanese Grand Prix winners
| Year | Driver | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull-Honda RBPT |
| 2024 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull-Honda RBPT |
| 2023 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull-Honda RBPT |
| 2022 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull-Honda RBPT |
| 2021 | Not held due to the COVID-19 pandemic | |
| 2020 | Not held due to the COVID-19 pandemic | |
| 2019 | Valtteri Bottas | Mercedes |
| 2018 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2017 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
| 2016 | Nico Rosberg | Mercedes |
| 2015 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes |
☁️ Japanese Grand Prix weather
There's only a 4% chance of precipitation, with wind gusts of 12 mph. The temperature will be around 53 degrees, offering idyll race conditions.
🗓️ 2026 Japanese Grand Prix schedule
Practice 1: Thursday, March 26 @ 10:30 p.m. ETPractice 2: Friday, March 27 @ 2 a.m. ETPractice 3: Friday, March 27 @ 10:30 p.m. ETQualifying: Saturday, March 28 @ 2 a.m. ET- Race: Sunday, March 29 @ 1 a.m. ET
📺 How to watch 2026 Japanese Grand Prix
- Date: Sunday, March 29
- Time: 1 a.m. ET
- Location: Suzuka Circuit (Mie Prefecture, Japan)
- How to watch: ESPN
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