🏎️ NASCAR Odds & Betting Favorites at Phoenix 2026: Blaney Favored, Reddick Seeks 4th Win
We've never seen anything like what Tyler Reddick has done winning the first three races of the NASCAR season. But he's not the favorite to reach Victory Lane this Sunday in the Straight Talk Wireless 500 (3:30 p.m. ET, FS1) at Phoenix Raceway.
Instead, Ryan Blaney enters this week as the betting favorite with +475 odds to lead Team Penske to yet another win at Phoenix. He's followed by Denny Hamlin, who leads the latest NASCAR championship odds, and former Phoenix winners Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson, and William Byron ahead of qualifying on Saturday.
Here's a look at the latest Straight Talk Wireless 500 odds with my favorite early targets for Sunday's race at Phoenix.
📊 NASCAR betting odds at Phoenix
Here's a look at the current odds to win Sunday's race at Phoenix via BetMGM:
| Driver | Odds | Implied Probability | Profit on $10 Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Blaney | +375 | 21.05% | $37.50 |
| Joey Logano | +550 | 15.38% | $55 |
| Christopher Bell | +650 | 13.33% | $65 |
| Kyle Larson | +775 | 11.43% | $77.50 |
| Denny Hamlin | +900 | 10.00% | $90 |
| William Byron | +1000 | 9.09% | $100 |
| Austin Cindric | +1400 | 6.67% | $140 |
| Ross Chastain | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
| Tyler Reddick | +1800 | 5.26% | $180 |
| Carson Hocevar | +1800 | 5.26% | $180 |
| Chase Briscoe | +2000 | 4.76% | $200 |
| Chase Elliott | +2500 | 3.85% | $250 |
| Josh Berry | +3000 | 3.23% | $300 |
| Bubba Wallace | +3000 | 3.23% | $300 |
| Ty Gibbs | +3500 | 2.78% | $350 |
| Chris Buescher | +4000 | 2.44% | $400 |
| Daniel Suarez | +4000 | 2.44% | $400 |
| Kyle Busch | +6000 | 1.64% | $600 |
| Connor Zilisch | +8000 | 1.23% | $800 |
| Brad Keselowski | +8000 | 1.23% | $800 |
| Ryan Preece | +8000 | 1.23% | $800 |
| Michael McDowell | +15000 | 0.66% | $1,500 |
| Austin Dillon | +20000 | 0.50% | $2,000 |
| Erik Jones | +25000 | 0.40% | $2,500 |
| Shane van Gisbergen | +25000 | 0.40% | $2,500 |
| John H. Nemechek | +25000 | 0.40% | $2,500 |
| Anthony Alfredo | +25000 | 0.40% | $2,500 |
| AJ Allmendinger | +35000 | 0.28% | $3,500 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | +35000 | 0.28% | $3,500 |
| Noah Gragson | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Todd Gilliland | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Zane Smith | +50000 | 0.20% | $5,000 |
| Austin Hill | +75000 | 0.13% | $7,500 |
| Cole Custer | +100000 | 0.10% | $10,000 |
| Ty Dillon | +100000 | 0.10% | $10,000 |
| Riley Herbst | +100000 | 0.10% | $10,000 |
| Cody Ware | +100000 | 0.10% | $10,000 |
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🔢 Straight Talk Wireless 500 starting lineup
Here is the full starting lineup for today's race, with Joey Logano sitting on the pole.
| Position | Driver |
|---|---|
| 1 | Joey Logano |
| 2 | Kyle Larson |
| 3 | Austin Cindric |
| 4 | Daniel Suarez |
| 5 | Ryan Blaney |
| 6 | Ross Chastain |
| 7 | Carson Hocevar |
| 8 | Tyler Reddick |
| 9 | William Byron |
| 10 | Josh Berry |
| 11 | Denny Hamlin |
| 12 | Christopher Bell |
| 13 | Ryan Preece |
| 14 | Ty Gibbs |
| 15 | John H. Nemecheck |
| 16 | Michael McDowell |
| 17 | Chris Buescher |
| 18 | Shane van Gisbergen |
| 19 | Connor Zilisch |
| 20 | Chase Briscoe |
| 21 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. |
| 22 | Riley Herbst |
| 23 | AJ Allmendinger |
| 24 | Zane Smith |
| 25 | Austin Dillon |
| 26 | Chase Elliott |
| 27 | Austin Hill |
| 28 | Bubba Wallace |
| 29 | Kyle Busch |
| 30 | Todd Gilliland |
| 31 | Anthony Alfredo |
| 32 | Erik Jones |
| 33 | Ty Dillon |
| 34 | Cody Ware |
| 35 | Noah Gragson |
| 36 | Cole Custer |
| 37 | Brad Keselowski |
🏆 NASCAR betting insights for Straight Talk Wireless 500
Here's a look at the latest betting insights from BetMGM ahead of Sunday's race:
| Driver | Odds movement | Ticket % | Handle % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Reddick | +1800 → +1800 | 18.4% | 31.5% |
| Joey Logano | +1200 → +1300 | 8.4% | 8.2% |
| Ryan Blaney | +450 → +475 | 5.9% | 10.7% |
| Bubba Wallace | +8000 → +5000 | 5.4% | 3.4% |
| Carson Hocevar | +5000 → +3000 | 5.0% | 4.3% |
| Kyle Larson | +550 → +700 | 4.9% | 3.9% |
| Christopher Bell | +550 → +600 | 4.9% | 5.3% |
| Denny Hamlin | +450 → +500 | 4.7% | 5.2% |
| Chase Briscoe | +1800 → +1400 | 4.7% | 6.5% |
| Chase Elliott | +1400 → +1600 | 4.0% | 2.3% |
To nobody's surprise, the public has rallied around Reddick after the 23XI driver won the first three races of the season to make history. He's followed by two Team Penske drivers in Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney in terms of ticket count, though Blaney has seen nearly twice as much wagered on him for every bet placed.
😤 Can Blaney win again at Phoenix?
Reddick might be on the best season-opening heater in NASCAR history, but Blaney is the favorite to win Sunday's race for a reason - or multiple, really.
The first is his track record at Phoenix Raceway: he's finished in the top five in seven of his eight races here in the Next Gen era (since 2022), which includes four P2s and a win in his last trip to the desert in November. The only miss was a 28th-place finish in last year's spring race here, when he still finished in the top five in both stages.
He's also shown a blistering pace so far this season, even if his final results don't exactly show it. And Team Penske has been a force at this track, winning three of the eight races at Phoenix in the Next Gen car. I'm going to dive into this race more later this week, but if I had to pick any driver in the field to win this race, it'd be Blaney.
🔥 More NASCAR contenders at Phoenix
Here's a look at the other top contenders to win Sunday's race at Phoenix Raceway:
Denny Hamlin (+500)
Hamlin hasn't enjoyed as much success through three races as he may have liked after nearly clinching his first-ever championship in last year's race at Phoenix, where he led 208 laps and was in position to win before a late caution ripped that away. I expect a motivated driver behind the wheel of the No. 11 car on Sunday, which is dangerous at a track where he's excelled over the years.
Christopher Bell (+600)
Bell has won the spring race at Phoenix each of the last two years and is coming off a strong P3 finish last week at COTA, which could be what the No. 20 team needs to shake off a pair of finishes outside the top 20 to start the year. He led 103 laps in his most recent win here and could use a big showing to help his points in the new Chase format.
Kyle Larson (+700)
Larson returns to the site of his second NASCAR championship victory just a few months ago, when that late caution by his teammate William Byron opened the door for Larson to pounce and finish third to clinch the Cup Series title. He does have a win at this track in 2021 and is always a threat on more traditional ovals compared to the superspeedways and road courses we've seen thus far.
William Byron (+700)
Byron won the spring race at Phoenix in 2023, one of five top-six finishes in his last seven races at this track. His 33rd-place finish last year is deceiving: he started second and led 52 laps with a Stage 1 win and third-place finish in Stage 2 before the caution heard 'round the world. He led 83 laps in last year's spring race and is live to win this time around.
💰 Early picks & best bets at Phoenix
Here's a look at the best values on the board looking ahead to Sunday's race:
Joey Logano (+1300)
You're telling me the active leader in wins at Phoenix (four), coming off two top-five finishes in his last three trips here, is catching 13/1 odds to win again? I simply don't understand the logic for these odds on Logano, who showed enough speed in the two superspeedway races for me to back him early in the week at one of his best tracks.
Tyler Reddick (+2000)
We highlighted Reddick in our early odds piece last week and bet on him as one of our top contenders at COTA, and he rewarded us with his third consecutive win to open the year. I understand the difference between superspeedways, road courses, and 1-mile tracks like Phoenix - but do the oddsmakers understand momentum? I can't help but take a shot at these odds until Reddick cools off one iota.
Josh Berry (+2200)
Team Penske and Hendrick Motorsports get all the attention for lapping the field at this track - and deservedly so - but Berry has been sneaky impressive in his last two races here with Wood Brothers Racing, a technical alliance partner with Penske. He finished fourth and seventh last year in his debut year with the race team, and I'll have him on my bet slip before qualifying.
🏆 Past NASCAR winners at Phoenix
Here's a look at the last eight winners at Phoenix Raceway in the Next Gen era:
| Race | Winner | Team | Laps led |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2025 (Championship) | Ryan Blaney | Team Penske | 20 |
| Spring 2025 | Christopher Bell | Joe Gibbs Racing | 105 |
| Fall 2024 (Championship) | Joey Logano | Team Penske | 107 |
| Spring 2024 | Christopher Bell | Joe Gibbs Racing | 50 |
| Fall 2023 (Championship) | Ross Chastain | Trackhouse Racing | 157 |
| Spring 2023 | William Byron | Hendrick Motorsports | 64 |
| Fall 2022 (Championship) | Joey Logano | Team Penske | 187 |
| Spring 2022 | Chase Briscoe | Stewart Haas Racing | 101 |
Hendrick Motorsports has been the historic dominant power at this track, but Team Penske has been the one to beat as of late with two wins in the lastthree races and three overall in the Next Gen era. Joe Gibbs Racing is a team to watch on Sunday with former winners Christopher Bell, Chase Briscoe, and Denny Hamlin all among the favorites.
📺 How to watch NASCAR at Phoenix: 2026 Straight Talk Wireless 500
- Date: Sunday, March 8
- Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Phoenix Raceway (Phoenix)
- TV: FS1
- Track: 1-mile, low-banked tri-oval (312 laps, 312 miles)
- Stages: Stage 1 (lap 60), Stage 2 (lap 185),
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