🏀 NBA Player Props Tonight: Top Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds (April 3)
📡 SBR Edge: Achiuwa Continues to Make It Rain in April
My NBA player props tonight feature Precious Achiuwa Over 13.5 points (-126), as the betting market has been slow to adjust to his increased role. Cooper Flagg Over 24.5 points (+100) is my next NBA best bet. He has been somewhat unlucky lately, and I expect that to end tonight. I wrap up my top picks with Jayson Tatum Over 9.5 rebounds (+101), as he has been one of the best rebounders in the league since his minutes were increased.
๐ Best NBA player props tonight: April 3
See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds.
| ๐ฐ Pick | ๐ก Best odds | โ๏ธ Bet size | ๐ง Why I'm making this bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Precious Achiuwa Over 13.5 points | -126 via DraftKings | 1.26u -> 1u | Has gone Over in 5 straight games |
| Cooper Flagg Over 24.5 points | +100 via BetMGM | 1u -> 1u | Attempted 19 shots in each of his last 2 games |
| Jayson Tatum Over 9.5 rebounds | +101 via DraftKings | 0.99u -> 1u | Ranks 2nd in defensive rebounds over last 2 weeks |
Total wagered: 3.25 units | Max profit: 3 units
๐ฐ Best NBA player prop bet tonight
Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.
Precious Achiuwa Over 13.5 points (-126) vs. Pelicans
Achiuwa has taken on a much larger role in the Kings' offense since early March. He averaged 15.4 points per game last month and has scored 14 or more in five straight.
He has attempted 11 or more shots in nine of his last 10 games, and if he reaches that many field-goal attempts tonight, he'll likely cash this Over. This bet is -126 at DraftKings, but I would play it up to -150 on the best sports betting sites.
Precious Achiuwa player prop trends
Hereโs a look at how Precious Achiuwa has performed recently, as well as against the Pelicans:
| Bet | Best odds | Last 5 games | Last 5 vs. Pelicans |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 13.5 points | -126 via DraftKings | 5-0 โ | 2-3 โ |
| Over 8.5 rebounds | +112 via FanDuel | 3-2 โ | 1-4 โ |
| Over 22.5 points + rebounds | -118 via FanDuel | 4-1 โ | 1-4 โ |
I would put next to zero stock in Achiuwaโs history against the Pelicans, as heโs playing a much larger role now on the shorthanded Kings than he did with previous rosters.
๐ฅ More NBA player prop picks
Cooper Flagg is a +1100 betting underdog in the NBA Rookie of the Year odds.
Cooper Flagg Over 24.5 points (+100) vs. Magic
Flagg has been somewhat unlucky on offense lately, and I expect the No. 1 overall pick to snap out of it tonight.
He has attempted 19 field goals in each of his last two games, and while he has made six or fewer shots in each outing, he's averaging 46.7% from the field this season. That makes it unlikely he scores 24 or fewer points if he gets up that many shots again tonight. BetMGM lists his Over at +100, but this bet is good up to -120 on the best NBA betting sites.
Jayson Tatum Over 9.5 rebounds (+101) at Bucks
Tatum has been a monster on the boards. He averages the second-most defensive rebounds per game (11.4) over the last two weeks, just behind Nikola Jokic, who averages 14 per game.
The concern here is that Tatum may not play enough minutes in a blowout to grab 10 rebounds, but the Celtics are in a classic sandwich spot - they just played in Miami and then head home to face Toronto next - so this game will probably be closer than most expect. This bet is +101 at DraftKings, but I would play it up to -115 on the best sports betting apps.
🏀 More NBA player props
LJ Blut's NBA play of the day offers a Timberwolves vs. 76ers expert pick.
๐๏ธ Most-bet NBA player props tonight
Here's my analysis of the most-bet NBA player props tonight (h/t BetMGM):
| Player | Team | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Barnes | Raptors | Over 15.5 rebounds + assists | -160 |
| Mikal Bridges | Knicks | Under 21.5 points + rebounds + assists | -110 |
| Adem Bona | 76ers | Under 6.5 rebounds | -160 |
| Scottie Barnes | Raptors | Over 8.5 assists | -130 |
| Matas Buzelis | Bulls | Over 23.5 points + rebounds | -135 |
Scottie Barnes Over 15.5 rebounds + assists (-160) is the most popular NBA player prop at BetMGM tonight. Interestingly, the line hasnโt moved despite heavy betting.
Iโd recommend taking Barnesโ Over at DraftKings instead, where itโs listed at 15.5 (Over: -131 | Under: +100). Barnes has averaged 16.29 rebounds + assists over the past two weeks.
๐ Best NBA parlay picks tonight
With so many huge spreads tonight, there are several opportunities for parlaying underdogs with a player to go Over on the favorite.
My best NBA same-game parlay tonight is Tatum to record 10+ rebounds as the Bucks cover +17.5. Tatum has been aggressive on the boards, and he'll likely play more minutes if the Bucks can keep the game within 18 points.
💵 Best NBA parlay bet tonight
- Jayson Tatum 10+ rebounds
- Bucks +17.5
Best odds: +340 via bet365 (0.44u -> 1.5u)
๐ต My betting record for NBA picks
All NBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since Feb. 10.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 85-98-3 | -17.47 units โ | -8% โ |
| Player props | 80-80-3 | -17.78 units โ | -8.5% โ |
| Spreads | 1-0 | +1.5 units โ | 87% โ |
| Parlays | 4-18 | -1.18 units โ | -16.9% โ |
๐ก How I'm betting NBA player props tonight
I'm allocating 3.25 units for tonight's slate, which is roughly what I would usually risk on three player props.
I'm confident directionally in all of these plays, but they're not priced too far from where I'd set them. If I thought I had a bigger edge, I would wager more, up to 2.5 units per bet (or 5 units in a once-in-a-year type scenario).
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