🏀 NBA Player Props Tonight: Best Bets, Expert Picks & Odds (March 31)
📡 SBR Edge: Doncic Keeps the Good Times - and Points - Rolling
My NBA player props tonight feature Daniss Jenkins Over 20.5 points + assists (-125), as he has played a larger role on the shorthanded Pistons recently. My next NBA best bet is Bennedict Mathurin Over 23.5 points + rebounds (-122), as he has consistently cashed this bet since going to the Clippers. I wrap up with Luka Doncic Over 32.5 points (-106), as he has been on one of the most impressive scoring streaks I have seen since Kobe Bryant was in the NBA.
π Best NBA player props tonight: March 31
See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds.
| π° Pick | π‘ Best odds | βοΈ Bet size | π§ Why I'm making this bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daniss Jenkins Over 20.5 points + assists | -125 via BetMGM | 1.88u -> 1.5u | Has cashed this prop in 5 of last 6 games |
| Bennedict Mathurin Over 23.5 points + rebounds | -122 via Caesars | 1.83u -> 1.5u | Has gone Over in 8 of last 9 contests |
| Luka Doncic Over 32.5 points | -106 via FanDuel | 1.59u -> 1.5u | Has scored 33+ points in 6 of last 7 games |
Total wagered: 5.3 units | Max profit: 4.5 units
π° Best NBA player prop bet tonight
The Pistons have the seventh-shortest odds to win the NBA Finals.
Daniss Jenkins Over 20.5 points + assists (-125) vs. Raptors
Jenkins has become a huge part of the offense since Cade Cunningham - who we're monitoring in our NBA awards eligibility tracker - went down with a collapsed lung.
He has totaled 21 or more points + assists in five of his last six games, including Monday against the Thunder, who rank first in defensive efficiency. Against the Raptors, he should have a much easier time hitting this number. This bet is -125 at BetMGM, but I would play it up to -155 on the best sports betting sites.
π₯ More NBA player prop picks
Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.
Bennedict Mathurin Over 23.5 points + rebounds (-122) vs. Trail Blazers
Mathurin is the No. 2 option on the Clippers, behind Kawhi Leonard, and he has been aggressive crashing the boards since being traded to Los Angeles. Heβs averaging nearly three more points per game as a Clipper, along with an additional half-rebound per contest.
He has recorded 24 or more points + rebounds in eight of his last nine games and has cashed this prop in three straight. Caesars lists his Over at -122, but this bet is good up to -150 on the best NBA betting sites.
Luka Doncic Over 32.5 points (-106) vs. Cavaliers
Now is not the time to get cute - or contrarian - and take the Under on Doncicβs points. He has scored 33 or more points in six of his last seven games and should come out even more aggressive tonight after missing Mondayβs game due to a league suspension.
A well-rested Doncic facing a Cavaliers team on the second night of a back-to-back seems like a perfect storm for his scoring streak to continue. This bet is -106 at FanDuel, but I would play it up to -125 on the best sports betting apps.
π Luka Doncic player prop trends
Here's a look at how Luka Doncic has performed recently, as well as specifically against the Cavaliers:
| Bet | Best odds | Last 5 games | Last 5 vs. Cavaliers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 32.5 points | -106 via FanDuel | 4-1 β | 3-2 β |
| Over 7.5 rebounds | -112 via Caesars | 1-4 β | 2-3 β |
| Over 7.5 assists | -137 via Caesars | 1-4 β | 2-3 β |
| Over 3.5 three-pointers made | -174 via FanDuel | 3-2 β | 1-4 β |
While Doncic hasn't recorded many rebounds or assists lately, I would be cautious about playing his Unders tonight. LeBron James is questionable for the Lakers, meaning Doncic - who already leads the NBA in usage rate - will likely record more rebounds and assists.
ποΈ Most-bet NBA player props tonight
Here's my analysis of the most-bet NBA player props tonight (h/t BetMGM):
| Player | Team | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Knicks | Over 17.5 points | -115 |
| John Collins | Clippers | Over 12.5 points | -110 |
| Scoot Henderson | Trail Blazers | Under 4.5 first-quarter points | -110 |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | Over 24.5 points | -130 |
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | Over 13.5 points | -130 |
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 17.5 points (-115) being the most popular bet at BetMGM tonight isn't surprising, as the number is lower than his season average and he's a star player on one of the two most popular teams in the league (Lakers and Knicks).
Towns has scored 15 or fewer points in back-to-back games and has seen inconsistent minutes since December. The bet is Over 17.5 (-145) at BetMGM now; I would consider playing it Over 18.5 (+107 via DraftKings) instead, as that one point isn't worth 52 cents.
π Best NBA parlay picks tonight
One concern about why Doncic might not score 34 points is that he could play fewer minutes if the Lakers are winning comfortably against the Cavaliers.
If the Cavaliers keep this game close - and the spread suggests thatβs the most likely outcome - then Doncic has a better shot at playing more minutes (and scoring more points).
💵 Best NBA parlay bet tonight
- Cavaliers +2
- Doncic Over 33.5 points
Best odds: +310 via bet365 (0.32u -> 1u)
π΅ My betting record for NBA picks
All NBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since Feb. 10.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 83-93-3 | -14.3 units β | -6.9% β |
| Player props | 78-77-3 | -15.56 units β | -7.8% β |
| Spreads | 1-0 | +1.5 units β | 87% β |
| Parlays | 4-16 | -0.24 units β | -3.9% β |
π‘ How I'm betting NBA player props tonight
I'm allocating 5.3 units for tonight's slate, which is more than I would usually risk on three player props.
I'm confident that these three bets are mispriced. If I thought that I had a bigger edge, I would wager even more, up to 2.5 units per bet (or 5 units in a once-in-a-year type scenario).
I treat 1 unit as 1 percent of my bankroll, and while I'm coming off a bad week, my NBA betting typically has high highs and low lows, so I'm expecting things to turn around before the regular season wraps up.
🏀 More NBA player props
I feature Karl-Anthony Towns and Alperen Sengun in my Knicks vs. Rockets player props.
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