🏀 2026 March Madness MVP Odds: Best MOP Bets Heading into Friday's Sweet 16
Despite the injury to Iowa State's Joshua Jefferson, which impacted my March Madness MVP predictions, the favorites remained stable entering Friday's second half of the Sweet 16.
The March Madness MVP award, named the Final Four Most Outstanding Player, is almost always handed to a player on the winning team. Hakeem Olajuwon, in 1983, was the last player on a losing team to capture the award. As part of the March Madness predictions, I've highlighted four players as my favorite picks to win, with Duke's Cameron Boozer the standout.
🏀 March Madness MVP predictions & odds entering Sweet 16
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Player (Team) | MOP odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Burries (Arizona) | +650 via DraftKings | 1.5u -> 9.75u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Cameron Boozer (Duke) | +425 via DraftKings | 1u -> 4.25u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Braden Smith (Purdue) | +1400 via DraftKings | 1u -> 14u | ⭐⭐ |
| Jeremy Fears Jr. (Michigan State) | +4500 via DraftKings | 1u -> 45u | ⭐ |
Total wagered: 4.5 units | Max profit: 45 units
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🏆 Who will win Final Four Most Outstanding Player in 2026?
Brayden Burries to win Most Outstanding Player (+650)
When making my original Most Outstanding Player prediction, I selected Jaden Bradley as the player to win this award if Arizona wins the national title. However, with 34 points, 14 rebounds, and 4 assists, there is no doubt Burries has overtaken Bradley.
Burries is shooting 65% from the floor through two rounds, and he's an astounding 7-of-8 from 3-point range. Burries leads Arizona with 16.0 points per game this season, and his Sweet 16 matchup is against a team allowing 80.3 points per game.
The only thing stopping Burries from winning this award is his path to the title. Arizona has to face SEC Tournament champ Arkansas in the Sweet 16, then will likely get the Big Ten Tournament champ, Purdue, in the Elite Eight. But this is KenPom's second-ranked team, and other than one week in February, Arizona has been the best team all year.
💰 More March Madness MVP picks
See all of our March Madness predictions for the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
Cameron Boozer, Duke (+425)
Boozer is the only Duke player in the top 25 of Most Outstanding Player odds heading into the Sweet 16. He recorded double-doubles in each of his first two games, scoring 41 total points and grabbing 24 total rebounds.
Duke faces a gauntlet to win the title, taking on No. 5 St. John's in the Sweet 16, then battling either No. 2 UConn or No. 3 Michigan State in the Elite Eight. But if Duke can survive, there is no doubt that Boozer will be named Most Outstanding Player.
Boozer leads Duke in points, rebounds, and assists per game, and while Sweet 16 opponent St. John's only allows 69.4 points per game, the Red Storm also foul a lot. St. John's ranks 159th in fouls per game, and Boozer should pad his stats from the line, where he averages 5.8 makes and 7.3 attempts per game.
Braden Smith, Purdue (+1400)
In the first round of the NCAA Tournament, Smith became the NCAA's all-time leader in assists. But more importantly, in the first two rounds, Smith scored 38 points and 16 assists. His teammate, Trey Kaufman-Renn, outscored him, logging 44 points, and he grabbed 18 rebounds. But Kaufman-Renn has odds of just +4000, perhaps because of what's on the horizon for Purdue.
Smith's Sweet 16 matchup is very favorable, as Texas is the worst-seeded team remaining in the tournament, and the Longhorns are allowing 76.1 points and 11.9 assists per game. Then, in the Elite Eight, a matchup against No. 1 Arizona is much more favorable for Smith than Kaufman-Renn. Arizona averages the second-most rebounds per game, and the Wildcats' big frontline will be able to neutralize the Purdue big man. Meanwhile, Arizona allows 12.1 assists per game, which is outside the top 75.
🎯 March Madness MVP long shot
See the official March Madness bracket for every team's path to the Final Four.
Jeremy Fears Jr., Michigan State (+4500)
Fears only scored 19 points in his first two NCAA Tournament games, but that was because he was too busy getting his teammates involved. Fears recorded 27 total assists, including 16 against No. 6 Louisville, which is tied for the third-most in an NCAA Tournament game ever.
Fears still leads Michigan State with 15.3 points per game this season. Before the NCAA Tournament, he scored at least 21 points in four consecutive games, and in each of those games, he still managed at least eight assists.
The Spartans have the ninth-best odds to win the title because of their path. Not only will they have to beat No. 2 UConn, but they'll also likely need to take down the tournament's overall No. 1 seed, Duke. But if all breaks right, Fears will win this award, as no other Michigan State player is in the top 35 of the current MOP odds.
📊 March Madness MVP odds entering Sweet 16
Final Four Most Outstanding Player odds via DraftKings. See the latest March Madness odds for every team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
| Player (Team) | MOP odds | Implied win probability | Profit ($10 bet) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yaxel Lendeborg (Michigan) | +400 | 20% | $40 |
| Cameron Boozer (Duke) | +425 | 19.05% | $42.50 |
| Brayden Burries (Arizona) | +650 | 13.33% | $65 |
| Kingston Flemings (Houston) | +1100 | 8.33% | $110 |
| Braden Smith (Purdue) | +1400 | 6.67% | $140 |
| Jaden Bradley (Arizona) | +1600 | 5.88% | $160 |
| Keaton Wagler (Illinois) | +1800 | 5.26% | $180 |
| Tamin Lipsey (Iowa State) | +2200 | 4.35% | $220 |
| Morez Johnson Jr. (Michigan) | +2500 | 3.85% | $250 |
| Koa Peat (Arizona) | +2500 | 3.85% | $250 |
| Aday Mara (Michigan) | +2500 | 3.85% | $250 |
| Joshua Jefferson (Iowa State) | +2800 | 3.45% | $280 |
| Emanuel Sharp (Houston) | +3000 | 3.23% | $300 |
| Trey Kaufman-Renn (Purdue) | +4000 | 2.44% | $400 |
| Tarris Reed (UConn) | +4000 | 2.44% | $400 |
| Elliot Cadeau (Michigan) | +4000 | 2.44% | $400 |
| Darius Acuff Jr. (Arkansas) | +4000 | 2.44% | $400 |
| Zuby Ejiofor (St. John's) | +4500 | 2.17% | $450 |
| Jeremy Fears Jr. (Michigan State) | +4500 | 2.17% | $450 |
| Solo Ball (UConn) | +5500 | 1.79% | $550 |
📃 Past March Madness MVP winners
| Year | MOP (Team) | Seed |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Walter Clayton Jr. (Florida) | 1 |
| 2024 | Tristen Newton (UConn) | 1 |
| 2023 | Adama Sanogo (UConn) | 4 |
| 2022 | Ochai Agbaji (Kansas) | 1 |
| 2021 | Jared Butler (Baylor) | 1 |
| 2019 | Kyle Guy (Virginia) | 1 |
| 2018 | Donte DiVincenzo (Villanova) | 1 |
| 2017 | Joel Berry II (North Carolina) | 1 |
| 2016 | Ryan Arcidiacano (Villanova) | 2 |
| 2015 | Tyus Jones (Duke) | 1 |
💵 My betting record for college basketball
All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-44 | +29.27 units ✅ | +28.4% ✅ |
| Game picks | 24-19 | +16.66 units ✅ | +26.7% ✅ |
| Player props | 6-10 | -9.23 units ❌ | -37.7% ❌ |
| Parlays | 4-15 | +21.84 units ✅ | +136.5% ✅ |
🤔 What do recent trends tell us about the March Madness MVP?
- Dating back to 2014, 10 of the previous 11 MVP winners were guards
- Of the featured players, Smith, Fears, and Burries are guards
💡 How I'm betting March Madness MVP entering Sweet 16
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
Three of my four pre-tournament MVP picks are still alive, but with Jefferson injured and Bradley struggling, the only player I'm doubling down on is Boozer.
I'll play one unit on his current odds, which are more lucrative than his original ones. Burries is currently the best player on the best team, so I'm risking 1.5 units on him. Plus, if he doesn't win the award, it will likely be Bradley who does, and I already have one unit on him.
I'm also risking one unit on both Smith and Fears, as both players have been outstanding in this tournament.
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