🏀 South Carolina vs. UCLA Prediction & Picks: Women's March Madness Championship (April 5)
Fresh off eliminating previously unbeaten UConn, top-ranked South Carolina enters the national championship game as the favorite. Still, the Gamecocks will have their hands full with a 36-1 UCLA squad that is hungry for its first national title.
My best South Carolina vs. UCLA prediction for Sunday's 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN) women's March Madness national championship at Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix focuses on the strong defensive play of both teams this season.
South Carolina is a 3.5-point betting favorite, but my women's March Madness predictions are eyeing the total.
🏀 South Carolina vs. UCLA picks & odds: Women's March Madness championship
See all of our experts' college basketball picks based on the latest college basketball odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.
| Pick | Best odds | Units | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Carolina -3.5 | -110 via bet365 | 1u -> 0.91u | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| Under 131.5 | -110 via DraftKings | 2u -> 1.82u | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
Total wagered: 3 units | Max profit: 2.73 units
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🏆 Who will win South Carolina vs. UCLA?
I'm taking South Carolina to win a low-scoring game by five points, because the Gamecocks' defense has been incredible in this tournament, never allowing more than 68 points, while holding two of the nation's top 14 shooting offenses to 33% or worse from the floor in back-to-back games.
Score prediction: South Carolina 64, UCLA 59
💰 South Carolina vs. UCLA prediction & best bet
Under 131.5 (-110)
Each of these defenses allows 57.3 or fewer points per game. South Carolina held UConn to just 48, while the Huskies' previous low this season was 63. Meanwhile, UCLA held Texas to 31% from the floor.
While both teams average at least 84.9 points per game, both offenses have cooled in the Elite Eight and Final Four, with neither team scoring more than 78 in a game. Both teams have seen back-to-back games feature 130 points or fewer, and I expect a similar result with both defenses holding opponents below 36.5% from the field.
🚀 South Carolina vs. UCLA same-game parlay
Both offenses have been excellent this season, but when it comes to evenly-contested games, it's the defenses that show up. UCLA has held nine of its last 10 opponents to 62 or fewer, but I also anticipate offensive struggles for the Bruins against a defense that just held UConn's second-ranked offense to 48 points. Ultimately, it will be the South Carolina offense, led by five players scoring double figures, that makes enough shots to cover 3.5 points.
💵 South Carolina vs. UCLA SGP picks
- South Carolina -3.5
- Under 131.5
Best odds: +248 via DraftKings (1u -> 2.48u)
💵 My betting record for college basketball
All college basketball picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 13.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 53-57 | +62.06 units ✅ | +42.5% ✅ |
| Game picks | 33-21 | +28.27 units ✅ | +35.1% ✅ |
| Player props | 13-15 | -7.10 units ❌ | -16.7% ❌ |
| Parlays | 7-21 | +40.88 units ✅ | +177.7% ✅ |
💡 How I'm betting South Carolina vs. UCLA: Women's March Madness
Follow all of our college basketball analysis and expert predictions for March Madness.
The Under is the best play of the day. While these offenses have dominated weak competition all season, the Final Four showed what we should expect when they face more evenly matched foes. UCLA only managed 51 points against Texas, and with South Carolina holding UConn's excellent offense to just 48, this is an easy two-unit play for me. While I'm less confident in South Carolina covering 3.5 points, I'm risking one unit on the Gamecocks defense, which is seventh in the country in blocks, to protect the basket and cover this small spread.
📊 Live South Carolina vs. UCLA odds: Women's March Madness championship
The public has been all over South Carolina and the Under since the opening lines came out. The total was originally set at 133.5, but it has since dropped to at least 131.5 at our best March Madness betting sites, and some are even listing 130.
After what happened in the Final Four, I expect the total to keep dropping, so get in as soon as possible for the most value on the Under. As for the spread, South Carolina was originally favored by 1.5, and the number has jumped to 3.5. At FanDuel, the price is -124 for South Carolina to cover, suggesting the spread is about to climb to 4.5.
📺 How to watch South Carolina vs. UCLA: Women's March Madness championship
- Date: Sunday, April 5
- Tipoff: 3:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Mortgage Matchup Center (Phoenix)
- TV: ABC/ESPN
- Streaming: ESPN+
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